Clarity given over data spike that sees 286 extra Covid-19 cases attributed to Wrexham over last few months

The Health Minister has said a new reporting method should mean ‘greater clarity and consistency moving forward’ on coronavirus stats in Wales.

Up to the 13th Wrexham had a total of 886 confirmed cases, however a day later that figure had shot up to 1,172 cases – despite only a +2 day on day increase of reported confirmed cases. The extra 286 confirmed cases appear to have been assigned to dates over the last few months.

In the last seven days Wrexham has seen 21 confirmed cases, the highest in Wales, with Gwynedd being the second highest with 11.

Dr Giri Shankar, Incident Director for the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said: “Public Health Wales’ user-friendly data dashboard takes information from a range of different sources. The total number of positive cases now includes those reported from non-NHS Wales laboratories, which are subject to ongoing de-duplication, refinement and reconciliation. This may result in fluctuation of the total positive cases as this process takes place.”

“It should be noted that the cases from non-NHS Wales laboratories are not new cases, and have been on the dashboard for a number of weeks. They have previously been reported on a separate tab, but are now incorporated into the totals for the local authority area and Health Board area in which the patient resides, to give a complete picture for Wales.”

We asked the Health Minister Vaughan Gething about the figures, noting that there has been previous issues with reporting stats, locally a batch of 72 ‘historic’ confirmed cases related to the Wrexham outbreak being added in one go, and historic death figures also not being reported correctly back in April – something that was admitted to have had “an impact on ministerial perception”. We asked how important things such as that end up being wrong, and if he was confident in the figures as they stood, and if he was expecting any new data to adjust them further.

The Health Minister said, “I wouldn’t agree with your statement that the figures are wrong. It’s actually the figures we have at the time from the data source we had at the time and you’ll recall that we didn’t take part in the UK testing program for a period of time because these data transfer issues weren’t resolved at that point in time. We’ve now got those figures coming through to us and from this point forward, we should expect to have data flow that means we can give up to date information.”

“Otherwise, it’s part of the problem that you set out. Otherwise you have big chunks of data coming in that skew the figures you’ve got and the understanding you have. We know that actually access to lighthouse lab data was one of the concerns for the Public Health Leadership in Leicester about managing the outbreak there. We’re now in a position we have daily data flows, we present all those figures together so we don’t have two halves of a story. We’re presenting the story all together about testing numbers, positive outcomes, what that then means in terms of confirmed cases that then directly flow into our contact tracing teams as part of the Test Trace Protect service.”

“So these are actually improvements in the way we’re delivering data, and it should provide greater clarity and consistency moving forward.

“It still means that the evidence we have from the figures is that there is very little prevalence of coronavirus circulating in Wales today, that’s very good news. Again, I want to reinforce the message that shouldn’t lead to a lack of vigilance and can what we’re doing another civil distancing, or good hand hygiene, or people getting a test if they do have any of the symptoms of Coronavirus.”

New testing turnaround data has been released this week, with the below summary:

• Lab capacity in NHS Wales labs was 15,157 as at 12 July 2020. This does not include capacity at UK labs where some Welsh residents’ samples are processed.
• As at 1pm on 12 July 2020, there have been 218,653 tests authorised by NHS Wales laboratories.
• As at 7pm on 12 July 2020, there have been 78,667 tests authorised by non-NHS Wales laboratories for samples from Welsh residents.
• There have been a total of 97,075 tests performed on critical workers in Wales which have been processed in NHS Wales laboratories.
• At the end of 12 July 2020, 50.8% of results were returned within a day and 81.8% of results were returned within two days.
• In the latest week, 46.5% of test results authorised in NHS Wales laboratories were returned within a day and 66.3% within two days.
• By the end of 12 July 2020, 31,839 antibody tests have been authorised for Welsh residents processed through NHS Wales laboratories with 3,667 positive results.

The Health Minister was asked about the delays stated in the data, with a drop in 24 hour turnaround, and a bigger drop of 82% down to just 66% of two day results.

The Health Minister explained , “As the First Minister explained, there was a particular issue in a lighthouse lab in Manchester that’s actually serving lots of people in North Wales and the way that the drive through a testing results are being done. We’ve seen a significant increase in people accessing drive through centers, people taking the advice we’ve given them about getting a test because it is quick and easy to book an appointment. There was a technical issue in that lab and that’s had a material impact on our turnaround times. That’s not an exercise in blame. It’s a simple explanation for the fall in turnaround times.”

“We remain committed to not just getting a test and having that test quickly, but the quick turnaround and getting that sample from the sampling base to the lab, and we’ve taken action there to improve that and then the efficiency within our Welsh labs that we have more direct control over.

“There’ll be some difficult choices for us there about the staff numbers, about increasing that model to make sure we can be more efficient, even with low numbers test coming in at various points in the day, and all of those things are important to improve our testing turnaround.”