Election Predictions

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  • #129093

    HenryTulip
    Participant

    With the Wrexham Council elections just over 5 weeks away, I was wondering if anyone had any predictions as to how it will go. Personally, I see very little change in the political make-up. The ruling independents may take a slight hit and there may be gains for Tories and Plaid. Expect Labour and Lib Dems to roughly stay the same. Chances are Mark Pritchard will remain leader of an independent-Tory coalition.

    That`s just my opinion, others may see it differently. Does anyone have specific ward predictions?

    #129104

    99DylanJones
    Participant

    Henry with all of the behind closed doors challenges that have taken place over the past few months it is unlikely that Mark Pritchard will retain his Leadership after the election. The personality clashes will undoubtedly come through.

    The current arrangement is that there are the Independents led by Mark Pritchard and the Wrexham Independents led by Dave Bithell supported by Hugh Jones the lone Conservative on the Executive. The MP Group is made up of Clls who stood in the last election as Independents and were then joined by the 10 Labour Councillors who defected.

    It looks like Wrexham will have Independents forming the controlling Group but will depend how fragmented they become. If there are split factions that decide to work with Labour then there could be a coalition to achieve the 27 seats majority required to create a ruleing group.

    At present Predication

    Independnets 20 29 — two groups formed
    Wrexham Independents 8
    Labour 12 10
    Lib Dem 5 4 2 loss plus one gain (ex Leader regains a seat)
    Conservative 5 4
    Palid 2 5

    Total 52 52

    #129105

    wrexview
    Participant

    Mark Pritchard, did not even have an election last time, as he was unopposed . Hopefully all wards will be contested this time so electors have a chance to use their vote.

    #129106

    jimbow
    Participant

    Dylan.
    Whats to say the ten defectors from Labour to Independent during the last term will, if they stand again be elected as an Independent.
    Labour could retain the ward if they put up a candidate.

    #129112

    99DylanJones
    Participant

    Jim
    I was working on the assumption that there may be changes to some of the existing seats held by Labour – no doubt some of those areas that have lost their Labour elected Councillor will vote for the Party again rather than the person– clearly non of the 10 actually has an elected mandate to be Independent as they got in with a Lobour Manifesto.

    Whichever way there will be a game of musical chairs once the results are known to see who sist with who..

    #129121

    jimbow
    Participant

    Dylan
    I was looking at the Gwenfro ward, a strong Labour area presently represented by Cll Neil Rogers a Labour elected turned Independent.
    I cannot see him retaining that ward as an Independent.

    #129156

    99DylanJones
    Participant

    I thought Neil had declared that he wasn’t standing — perhaps change of mind we’ll have to want for the published list after 4th April.
    Another interesting development yesterday was the declaration by campaigners for saving Plas Madoc Leisure Centre are sticking to their promise to stand against those Councillors that supported the closure and not the people. This will lead to some interesting media coverage of who said what and when.

    Three years ago some Wrexham councillors voted to close Plas Madoc Leisure Centre.

    This was despite mass protests in opposition to the plan organised by local people, who understood the importance of the centre for the community and the general well-being of the population. Those arguments won the day because the centre was re-opened later in 2014 by a new community-run cooperative.

    Some of those councillors who voted to close the centre are standing for re-election in the May council elections. The campaign to save Plas Madoc believes it is important to remind voters who stood up for the centre and who closed it down.

    We say they ignored the views of the people that elected them.

    Anyone who cares for local democracy and keeping our services should bear that in mind when they come to vote on May the 4th.
    Once council candidates are made public next week we will make a further more detailed statement.

    on behalf of the Save Plas Madoc Leisure Centre campaign

    #129158

    Liam
    Participant

    [quote quote=129121]Dylan
    I was looking at the Gwenfro ward, a strong Labour area presently represented by Cll Neil Rogers a Labour elected turned Independent.
    I cannot see him retaining that ward as an Independent.

    [/quote]

    Not standing.

    #129159

    Interested
    Participant

    Nailing my colours to the mast.

    I hope for the following result
    Labour 18
    Independents ( Pritchards group) 11
    Independent (Bithells group) 8
    Conservatives 5
    Lib Dems 5
    Plaid 4

    Hopefully we have a Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid coalition with Councillor Dana Davies leading. Just like the way she challenges.

    Why? Because I see this as an alternative to the current administration and watching the webcasts it seems to me that the Labour lot are the only ones questioning and challenging. Will Mark Pritchard earn his seat this time, will those Councillors who left the Labour lot over Splash Magic earn the wrath of the electorate? Will the turn out be low? Soo many variables…..but its exiting.

    #129160

    Interested
    Participant

    I meant 5 for Plaid lol can’t count

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