Technical scientific advice and data behind latest pandemic regulation review published

The latest technical advice given to Welsh Government has been published, giving an insight to the pandemic which has become rarer due to the lack of PCR testing after a move to Lateral Flow Testing.

The latest advice document from the Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) has been published, although public now the document is dated the 10th, a comparatively quick publication compared to some during the pandemic and ties in with the timeframes of the most recent regulation review.

The Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) is a conduit and interpretation group, interpreting UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) outputs into a Welsh context, relay relevant information and questions from Welsh Government to SAGE as well as feed the information to groups such as Local Resilience Fora.

Data and points made in the document match up with what was said at the Welsh Government briefing, specifically in terms of the current covid rates in Wales, and the decrease as measured and reported by the ONS survey, the increase in cases noted by the Covid Zoe studies, and the wastewater monitoring taking place reporting stable figures.

Other notes in the document summary include:

• As at 8th February the total number of COVID patients occupying a hospital bed (confirmed, suspected and recovering) have increased slightly, with the total at 1101.
• The number of confirmed COVID patients in hospital has decreased to 545. COVID related patients occupying a critical care bed have continued to reduce to 18, 8 lower than last week and the lowest number since the 17th July 2021.
• The total occupied core and surge beds in a critical care environment was 168, this is 16 higher than the pre-COVID baseline of 152 for critical care beds and 3 higher than the same day last week.
• As at 4 February the number of weekly COVID-19 deaths reported by PHW has remained stable in the most recent weeks at 47 deaths, while lagged ONS reporting up to 28 January shows reduction in COVID deaths to 60 and the total number of deaths was 12.4% below the five-year average (103 fewer deaths). Compared with the 2015 to 2019 (pre-pandemic) five-year average, deaths in Wales were 9.1% below average (73 fewer deaths).
• On vaccines 23,642 doses were given in the week reporting. 3,389 were first doses, 4,600 were second doses, 15,307 were booster doses and 346 were third dose primary courses for immunosuppressed individuals.
• Gaps in vaccination coverage continue to reduce but at a slower rate than recent months, with the lowest coverage in the ‘unknown,’ African, Black Caribbean and Mixed ethnic groups. Vaccination coverage at the time of delivery in pregnant women delivering in the latest month has improved considerably but remains lower than in the general population.
• No other variants of concern were confirmed by genomic sequencing in Wales.

The ‘R’ figure, indicating the reproductive rate of the virus and an indicator of growth/contraction is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.o based off UKHSA data, however Public Health Wales’ figure appears more confident at 0.85 with a halving time of 31 days.

The report also gives the outcomes of the most recent Public Health Wales engagement survey, explaining that 47% of people said they had been following the restrictions ‘completely’ and a further 38% reported mostly complying. 49% of people said they had taken a lateral flow test in the past 7 days. 67% of people thought the restrictions in place to manage coronavirus were ‘about right’.

However, 34% thought they were ‘too much’, an increase from 12% in December 2021. The remaining 8% thought the restrictions were ‘too little’. 85% of people said they supported the continued requirement for face coverings in shops and other indoor public places in Wales. However 13% said they did not, an increase from 5% in December 2021.

Detail on the effectiveness of the vaccine is discussed and studies cited to back up the views provided, “UKHSA’s updated vaccine surveillance report shows the almost total waning of protection against symptomatic disease with 2 doses at 25 weeks is reversed by booster vaccination, which is 60-75% 2-4 weeks after vaccination but drops to 25- 40% from 15 weeks after the booster. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation following a boost remains high at 90% at 4 weeks, falling to around 80% for Pfizer at 10-14 weeks and 90% for Moderna at 5-9 weeks.”

“Early data from Israel, which in January began administering a fourth dose to people aged 60+ and at-risk populations, suggests compared to three doses given at least four months previously a fourth dose reduces the rate of confirmed infection by a factor of two and the rate of severe disease by a factor of four, with wide confidence intervals for the latter.”

A look ahead is given, with it made clear it is scenarios and specifically not predictions, to illustrate possible courses of pandemic based off this two page report. One example of four given for a ‘central optimistic scenario’ details a scenario-not-a-prediction of, “The UK sees a seasonal wave of infections in Autumn/Winter with comparable size and realised severity to the current Omicron wave. The general pattern is of annual seasonal infection with good and bad years, the latter with high transmissibility and intrinsic severity similar to Delta. Voluntary protective behaviours are high during waves. Some countries impose NPIs (e.g., face coverings) in bad years. Anti-viral resistance begins to appear and limits use until combination therapies become available.”

The next review point is set to be announced on the 25th of February with similar data likely to emerge a week or two afterwards.