Wrexham “shows that provided we do the right things and act together, things can improve as well as get worse”

The First Minister Mark Drakeford opened his briefing comments on Friday by talking about a ‘sobering week as the coronavirus position has worsened’, but highlighted Wrexham as an uplifting example to the rest of Wales.

In the last seven days of stats (although there are issues on getting tests, and Public Health Wales notes their figures are subject to data ‘lag’) Wrexham has seen 12 new confirmed cases. That compares to 24 in neighbouring Flintshire, and 123 in locked down Caerphilly or 214 in Rhondda Cynon Taf. Wrexham is the next to lowest for positive proportion of tests in North Wales with 1.3% currently, whereas Merthyr and RCT are over 6%.

The First Minister said, “I’ve heard some people say that the current rise in coronavirus cases is nothing to worry about. That it’s not serious because no one is in hospital and no one has died. But, we are back already to 41 people being treated for coronavirus in our hospitals in Wales and four people are in intensive care.

“We’ve learned a lot over the last six months about this virus, including how to treat it. But for everything we have learned, it is still a new disease. It is a disease which is highly infectious and has few effective treatments. And, no vaccine has yet has completed the worldwide search or something that would be effective and widely available. We have seen ourselves in both Caerphilly and in RCT how a few cases can quickly escalate in a short period of time into much wider community transmission and how that happens unless we follow the rules and the measures which are in place to protect us and our loved ones.”

The First Minister used Wrexham as a positive example for the rest of Wales,  as we were in the unwelcome position of having three areas of coronavirus concern: An issue connected to a local food factory was formally declared an outbreak on the 23rd of June (with staff walking out in protest at the start of April). Wrexham Maelor Hospital also had an ‘Outbreak Control Team’ at work, with additional concerns of wider community transmission meaning pop up mobile testing facilities appearing at the end of July in Hightown and Caia testing over 1,400 people in a few days. Despite the extra testing thankfully it was deemed no wider community transmission was taking place based off the results.

The First Minister said, “It’s important to remember that this is not a one way street, that things can get better, as well as get worse. Earlier in the summer we were very worried about the situation in Wrexham. There was a large outbreak at a food processing plant and another centered on Wrexham Maelor hospital. We were testing large numbers of people in two neighborhoods in the town. Today, cases of coronavirus in Wrexham are amongst the lowest in Wales.

“It shows that provided we do the right things and act together, things can improve as well as get worse. Now we stand on the cusp of autumn and winter and we continue to plan and prepare for an increase in Coronavirus over the weeks and months ahead. We’re using everything we have learned from the last six months as we plan for the worst, but work for the best.”

The First Minister then referred to new modelling published from the Technical Advisory Group about a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ that also includes the below graph. The advice notes “The Reasonable Worst Case is not what will happen, it is what could happen” and “It is important to reinforce that this is a deliberately pessimistic scenario in terms of challenging public services; it is not what we think will happen.”

“The Swansea model shows the next peak to occur between December 2020 and January 2021. This graph shows hospital admissions but other outcomes will show a similar shaped curve.” – TAC

The First Minister said, “We are using expert advice here in Wales, Swansea University has produced modeling, which shows just how serious things could be over this winter.

“Our ability to make a difference in the weeks and months ahead, depends on each and every one of us. Government can advise, government can inform, government can set rules, but only people can act on that advice.

“Working together as we have seen, we can make a difference. We have done it before and We can do it again. It is each one of us who has to act responsibly, and to make the right choices to follow those small measures, which keep us and our loved ones safe.

“We all need to keep our distance from each other when we are out and about. We need to wash our hands often. We need to work from home wherever we can. We need to wear a face covering in indoor public places. We need to follow any restrictions in place locally.

“We need to ask ourselves, not how many people can I meet, but how few people do I need to meet? Because the fewer contacts you have, the safer you will be.”

The Swansea model also includes this table.

The Public Health Wales updates also echoed the First Minister in their daily statements over this weekend, Dr Chris Williams, Incident Director for the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said: “We are now seeing a steady increase in cases in many communities across Wales, and our investigations show that many of these have been transmitted due to a lack of social distancing.”

“We are also seeing an increase in the number of people who are seriously ill and have been admitted to hospital with COVID-19.”