Election Day Weather – Will It Affect Your Vote?

Tomorrow is set to be cloudy with some sun until 2pm, with a patch of rain until 5ish. Will you still turn out to vote?

The Met Office forecast is as above, with it set to be quite a similar day as it was today.

Weather has always been said to affect voting turnout, with stories on how rain is good for some parties and worse for others – but is this true?

The Guardian looked at this in 2012, and asked an Oxford academic and election specialist who concluded firmly ‘no’.

The Guardian cite a Dutch study that says: “We find that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.”

The BBC reported on the topic last year, saying an election 1998 had a low turnout with bad weather playing a part, but overall deciding on the verdict of ‘inconclusive’.

A study in the US found for every inch of rain above the average rainfall, turnout dropped by around one percent, however Wrexham certainly is not due an inch of rain tomorrow!

Will the weather put you off voting or will you be there regardless?

Whatever the weather we will be live from the count tomorrow evening – so tune in then!