R in Wales drops to 0.7 First Minister says “headroom that has been hard won could be so easily lost”

The R figure for Wales has dropped to 0.7, First Minister Mark Drakeford said today.

The “R” has played a prominent part of the lockdown debate, with it representing a reproduction rating of the disease’s ability to spread. The figure is the number of people that one infected person will pass it onto, and therefore slowing, carrying on or snowballing the number of people infected.

At today’s Welsh Government press conference Mark Drakeford said the R figure in Wales had dropped from 0.8 to 0.7.

Last month during the last announcement on the easing of the lockdown the figure remained at 0.8, with Wrexham.com asking why the figure hadn’t reduced despite the restrictions on travel and social distancing We also pointed to a table previously presented by the First Minister that indicates an R of 0.8 could mean 800 deaths in the coming months. At the time Mr Drakeford said Coronavirus “is a virulent virus and it continues to attack people, even with lockdown we have hundreds of new people being infected.”

During the briefing today it was also confirmed that 32 people across Wales were being treated in critical care beds – the lowest since the early days of the pandemic on March 25th.

He said: “Today a further week of progress can be reported. The R number is compiled from a number of different studies and will become less significant as the number of cases of Coronavirus falls.

“Nevertheless, the latest evidence from the Centre For Mathematical Modelling of Infectious disease suggests that the most likely and recent figure for Wales has fallen from 0.8 to 0.7.

“Every day we continue to report deaths of Welsh citizens from Coronavirus. But while at its height, this reached over 40 people each day, this week, the daily figure so far has been below 10.

“For families who are grieving of course, it does not matter that the person you loved was one of 10 or one or four times that number. Each loss is that of an individual human life, a life that mattered and a life that had meaning and a life but Coronavirus has taken away.

“Nothing in the way we report these figures should ever and will never reduce that stark fact to just a set of numbers.”

The First Minister also indicated that the reduction in the R figure meant that there was some “head room” for changes to lockdown at the upcoming review next week.

However he warned that any big changes would see the “headroom that has been hard won could be so easily lost”.

Mr Drakeford added: “It’s because of the sober and cautious way in which we are lifting the restrictions. It is because of the way we are staying local and keeping Wales safe.

“All of that is important because Coronavirus is not over, we can choose a path in which we regained our freedoms gradually, carefully and safely using the headroom we have made together, but never taking steps, which would knowingly undermine everything we have achieved.

“Or we could throw it all away, lift the restrictions in a rush and run the real risk that this deadly virus would be on the rise again, in Wales.

“As I my cabinet colleagues make decisions next week, about the weeks ahead I want you to know that whatever happens elsewhere, and however long the demands to do things differently might be, we will stick to the path we have chosen.

“Your safety and that of your family will always be at the forefront of our thinking as we move to rebuild our society and our economy in Wales.”