Latest ‘Technical Advisory Cell’ briefing note published by Welsh Government

The latest technical advice given to Welsh Government has been published, stating the “R” figure for Wales is between 0.7 – 1.0.

Welsh Government has published more of the scientific and technical research, and evidence they have received to form a response to the pandemic in Wales.

The latest advice document from the Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) has been published, although public now the document itself is several days old. The Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) is a conduit and interpretation group, interpreting UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) outputs into a Welsh context, relay relevant information and questions from Welsh Government to SAGE as well as feed the information to groups such as Local Resilience Fora.

This is the second such publication and sees an update in several areas, including the “R” figure.

The reproduction value (Rt) for Wales is estimated to be between 0.7 and 1 which is described as “increased slightly when compared to last week” – which would roughly be the first week of May being compared to the second. Three days before this report is dated Welsh Government stated an “R” figure of 0.8 could see 800 deaths and 1.0 seeing a projection of 2,900 deaths.

A note reads, “It is the consensus view that the overall reproduction number has increased slightly, when compared to last week. This is because the number of cases in the community is decreasing while the number in, or seeded by, care homes or hospitals remains broadly flat. As a result, hospital or care home cases represent a higher proportion of total cases. This means that the rate at which the overall epidemic is shrinking has slowed.

Although the peak has been referenced as more current in North Wales than elsewhere, it notes, “The total number of hospital reported confirmed Covid-19 patients in Welsh ICU peaked on April 18 (139) and is now below half of this peak number (58)”.

New official information about the virus is contained in the briefing document including:

• The virus lasts far less long on surfaces in open sunlit environments, than in indoor environments.
• Evidence that the virus is likely to be stable for long periods of time on indoor surfaces and in air.
• Decay rate on surfaces increases with higher temperature and humidity.
• The virus is very likely to decay very quickly (a few minutes) in air and on surfaces when exposed to sunlight.

The report stated due to the above there is ‘likely small benefits’ in operating buildings at a higher temperature and/or humidity – with a note that ventilation rates should not be reduced to achieve this. It also concludes that ‘outdoor environments are highly likely to be a lower risk for transmission’.

The full TAC PDF can be found here, which is dated 12th May 2020.