Population of Wales set to grow by 2.6% by mid-2030

The overall population of Wales is set to grow by 2.6%, however the most recent figures for Wrexham show near flat population growth for Wrexham.

On a UK comparison over the 25-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2045, England is projected to have the largest increase in population, at 6.7%. The projected increase over the same period for Wales is 4.2% and for Northern Ireland it is 2.3%. Scotland is projected to see a decrease of 1.5% over this time.

England’s population is also projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.

The ONS say UK population growth over the next 10 years is projected to be driven by a net 2.2 million people migrating into the country.

The new figures show Wrexham’s population growth for the last recorded year was a 0.07% rise.

The key projections and findings of the latest projections are:

• Between mid-2020 and mid-2030, the population of Wales is projected to increase by 2.6% from 3.17 million to 3.25 million.
• Between mid-2020 and mid-2045, the population of Wales is projected to increase by 4.2% from 3.17 million to 3.30 million.
• The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% between mid-2020 and mid-2030 to 69.2 million, with the population projected to grow in each of the four countries.

 

A breakdown by age is also given:

• The number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 10.5% to 503,800 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 16-64 is projected to increase by 1.7% to 1,971,300 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to increase by 16.1% to 776,300 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 75 or older is projected to increase by 23.9% to 380,200 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.

The ONS caveat the data by stating, “All population projections are subject to uncertainty. These projections are based on the most recent mid-year population estimates covering the period up to 30 June 2020. Therefore, they only include some of the impacts on the UK population from the early part of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic.”

“Assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration are based on observed long-term demographic trends. It is not yet clear how changes in demographic behaviour since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic will translate into long-term demographic trends.”