Wrexham’s population is projected to grow by up to 10 per cent by 2039 – an increase of 13,000 people.
The data, which was released by Welsh Government shows that Wrexham’s population is expected to rise from 136,700 (2014 figures) to 150,000 by 2029.
Wrexham’s population growth is projected to amongst the highest in Wales, with only Cardiff expected to see a larger increase of 26 per cent.
The population forecasts have been released as part of the Welsh Government’s ‘Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2014-based): Principal projection’ – which is used to ‘form part of the evidence base needed to produce a Local Development Plan for a local authority’.
The data itself is based on ‘assumptions about births, deaths, and migration. The assumptions are generally based on trends in recent years’.
However it is noted that the ‘population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (for example, government policies on immigration or the implications of the EU referendum result), might have on demographic behaviour’.
Wrexham currently does not have an active Local Development Plan – however it is estimated that over the next 12 years over 12,000 new homes will need to be developed across the county borough, with 1200 set to be on brownfield sites and the remainder on green spaces.
Within the report it is noted that Wrexham is projected to experience a ‘steady’ population growth over the next 25 years – data for 2019, 2024, 2028, 2034 and 2039 can be found below:
Wrexham’s population increase is put down to several factors, with the report stating: “Between 2014 and 2039 the population of Wrexham is projected to increase by around 13,300. This is the second largest increase of the local authorities in Wales. Only the 0-4 and 5-10 age groups are projected to fall, with the largest increases in the older age groups.”
Net migration is also projected to account for an increase of 8,600 in the population between 2014 and 2039 (driven by international migration) with natural change accounting for a further 4,700 increase.
Explaining the projections in migration, the report states: “Migration refers to people moving from and into a local authority whether internationally, from a different part of the UK, or from a different local authority in Wales.
“The assumed levels of internal and international migration are based on average migration numbers for the five years leading up to mid-2014, and these are held constant for the projection period.
“Since migration levels can fluctuate from year to year, the projected levels of migration are also uncertain and are dependant on a range of other factors.
“As with births and deaths, the variant projections can be used to consider the impact of different migration levels including natural change only and using a ten year average.”
The report adds: “Eleven local authorities are projected to have positive migration and negative natural change, and five are projected to have negative migration and positive natural change.
“Of the others Blaenau Gwent is the only local authority to have negative migration and negative natural change. Gwynedd, Wrexham, Swansea, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Cardiff are all projected to have both positive migration and positive natural change.”
The full report / population projections for authorities across Wales can be found here.