Wrexham Council ‘pleased’ bad snowfall did not occur after strong warning yesterday – notes weather is “difficult to accurately predict”

With heavy snowfall predicted by Wrexham Council failing to materialise some councillors have voiced concern over the strength of the warning issued and lack of updates as forecasts were downgraded.

On Wednesday the council issued a strongly worded warning of ‘significant’ and ‘disruptive’ snow this afternoon. Thankfully the forecast turned out to be wrong in a positive way, meaning that any preparations were not required, rather than a huge amount of snow catching the area on the hop.

In a series of internal emails on Wednesday morning, after the snowfall that disrupted the area and caused many schools to close, the environment department circulated an update that said: “The snow shower this morning wasn’t forecast”.

“We are not expecting more snow until mid day tomorrow but this will be heavy and disruptive.”

Picture below of the B&Q roundabout Wednesday morning:

An update later on Wednesday reads: “Heavy snow is anticipated tomorrow. Initially this was expected around lunchtime, current forecast suggest this might push towards early afternoon 3ish.

“Gritters (and ploughs) are gearing up for this now with many of the team getting pre-rest time. 3 o’clock snow (if forecast correct) will impact school close time and likely impact afternoon rush. Do not want to cause concerns but all should be aware.”

Later that afternoon just before 4pm Wrexham Council published a public version of this information noting: “We’re expecting more snow tomorrow and it’s likely to be ‘significant’ and ‘disruptive’ ” detailing the preparations the council were taking.

When we published our version of that information an hour later we had looked at various forecasts, and noted the Met Office themselves had Wrexham town down for no snow or rain for that time, however gave the council’s warning prominence due to the unusually firm and startling warning over what they thought was likely. One reader responded to our article saying: “So Wrexham.com say no snow in response to an article stating the council are warning of snow. Anyone else confused here?”

Just after 9am this morning internal emails show Wrexham Council were aware the forecast had been ‘downgraded’ and ‘significant snow is less likely now and due later in the evening and mainly be flurry’s and showery’

Reflecting the models from the day before the morning update noted: “Snow is moving from the south and there is some uncertainty about how far north it will track. We are unlikely to need to deploy ploughs based on this.”

The update added: “We still anticipate a cold spell but surface temperatures are forecast to lift to minus 1 – 2 so not as severe. A cold weekend ahead. Please note the forecast at present is ‘low’ confidence. We will make formal action decisions after the lunch time forecast.”

The above information was due to be sent to all 52 councillors, however the 9am update was only sent on closer to 11am as the council officer who was due to send it was not in work.

As of 4pm the updated information, effectively retracting the major snow warning, had not been publicly by Wrexham Council however a handful of councillors appear to have circulated it in their own wards to some.

One Councillor we spoke to expressed concern over the forecasting information used by Wrexham Council and questioned the confidence in the information given out, describing a fear of a public perception of ‘crying wolf’, but also acknowledged forecasting was not an exact science and that the council could not win either way.

Another also voiced their concerns to us noting how it was clear there was contradictory data available, and also criticised the strength of the message put out yesterday by the council and lack of subsequent updates.

We asked Wrexham Council why that information of a downgrade in the forecast was not shared to the public. We also noted the unusually firm warnings over ‘significant’ and ‘disruptive’ snowfall contradicted other forecasts made that afternoon and asked about the weather forecasting process / provider the council uses.

A spokesperson for Wrexham Council told us: “We are pleased that the predicted snowfall did not arrive and has not caused any disruption but we had to prepare for the worst.

“However, it will remain cold and residents should take care when out and about. We will continue to inform residents about the winter weather situation which is sometimes difficult to accurately predict.”

After our query above, Wrexham Council updated on twitter:

Looks like the snow forecast yesterday will not be causing us any problems. It will remain cold though and our gritters will be out tonight and into tomorrow to make the roads as safe as possible. Please take care if you’re out and about. #wxmgrit #wrexham pic.twitter.com/omerOmPVgZ

— Wrexham Council (@wrexhamcbc) January 31, 2019

Top pic: Wrexham in the sun with no snow, not taken today.