Wrexham MP votes…
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The problem with Labour now is that the PLP do not represent the rank and file labour voters and without them they can’t get elected.
In the current climate as it stands any General Election will endeavor to bring the same result as the last with no working majority. No party has any clear lead and it will just carry any uncertainty forward.
So Matt you say that the deal is so horrible but you don’t say why it is so horrible.
What difference would a general election make if the EU won’t negotiate with whoever wins it?
My understanding is that JC & his colleagues want to retain membership of the single market which if I understand it correctly means that we would still have free movement of people which is one of the things that I thought that we voted against. I did anyway.
JC talks about TM’s red lines but didn’t he come up with 6 tests? Is that not also red lines by a different name?
I have zero confidence in any of them & if Brexit doesn’t happen then there would be no point in voting in any general election, referendum, peoples vote or whatever fancy name they come up with now or in the future. To think that I laughed at the Irish who voted until the politicians got the answer they wanted.
Some very good questions and statements zinger – I will address them below.
So Matt you say that the deal is so horrible but you don’t say why it is so horrible.
I believe on a whole the deal is horrible because it doesn’t go far enough for Hard Brexiteers to get the freedom from the EU they want & the level of participation proposed in the deal is not worth being involved in a soft Brexit – there are bills and constraints without any influence or reward.
With the backstop clause it also risks splitting the UK into 2 separate zones – NI remaining in the single market & Great Britain in a Customs Union or nothing at all – to me that is completely unacceptable. All 4 nations should be treated identically otherwise the concept of the UK itself is dead in the water.
What I believe will happen if NI stays in the single market is that on the upside for them is that European companies will base themselves to gain access to the UK market. This is in direct competition with Wales who are all already struggling to retain international companies as the base of choice in the UK. They will have an unfair advantage.
Also perversely there will be nothing to stop freedom of movement of EU citizens into Northern Ireland which is where all the new jobs will be anyway and inevitably they’ll use NI as a landing platform, gain residency and then come to the UK anyway and do everything leavers are scared of anyway. It’s the equivalent of having a secure perimeter fence around your house but someone has left your back gate unlocked and wide open.
Personally I don’t like the deal myself because I voted to remain & the only type of Brexit I would find acceptable is a Norway Plus deal – which includes single market access for all of the UK. That’s of course at odds with a lot of leavers voted for.
Theresa’s deal is almost like a Brexit deal for the sake of getting a Brexit it doesn’t give enough to any of the concerned factions – which is why it received a record defeat in Parliament.
A decent initial deal would have been thrashed out a year ago with wiggle room to modify and negotiate so that people could actually get on board with it and tweak it to something that could stand up on its own 2 feet. Not in this case, this is the final and only deal vote, on it and there’s only about 2 months to go and by the way there’s no room for renegotiation with Europe whatsoever.
There’s a lot more nitty gritty to it but those are the main problems I see with it.
What difference would a general election make if the EU won’t negotiate with whoever wins.
The EU seems to be hinting at an ability to go and renegotiate if something meaningful is done to try and resolve the current domestic political deadlock that is preventing Brexit legislation from being passed.
This means some kind of actual political action rather than repeat posturing and bluff and blunder which May specialises in.
I believe they’d renegotiate for one of the following actions:
I) A general election
II) A people’s vote
III) Change in Prime Minister of current Government
IV) Theresa May backs down from her red linesWhat this seems to hint is that either they hope one of these actions will shake up the British Parliamentary make up in the hope a deal will go through OR they’ll renegotiate but only for an even softer Brexit.
At present I’m not sure if they are anticipating a no deal happening – they seem to be very keen to lengthen the Article 50 Brexit deadline to prevent this from happening. Unless an ERG led Tory government gets in or a Phoenix from the Ashes UKIP party gets major influence in parliament nobody else wants no deal.
I’d be very interested to see what stance the EU would take if someone said F*CK it no deal!
JC talks about TM’s red lines but didn’t he come up with 6 tests? Is that not also red lines by a different name?
Yes, Labour’s 6 tests are effectively red lines but the Overton Window for them are more in line with the EU and are geared towards a more mutually beneficial relationship with the EU than May’s more UK-lone wolf ones.
Starmer’s six tests for the Brexit deal are:1. Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?
2. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?
3. Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?
4. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?
5. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?
6. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?
Mays Brexit Red lines get mentioned a lot in news articles and in part but there doesn’t seem to be a succinct summary of what they all entail – the official documentation is incredibly long winded.
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7938/CBP-7938.pdf
All I know is that May’s red lines have frustrated and not been compatible with the EU’s own goals hence the distinct lack of a decent deal.
Unless Labour get a crack of the whip at negotiating we won’t have a good idea about how well designed the 6 tests are to get any sort of Brexit deal. But my suspicion is – based on tests 1 and 2 is that it would get solid progression with the EU but then hit problems in Parliament with those looking for a harder Brexit especially if Labour didn’t have a strong majority – as they’d also be against the remain at all costs MPs from all parties.
Matt, do you really want to call a General Election on the notion that the EU are hinting that they may renegotiate? Result would obviously be non-conclusive.
If we go down the route of a peoples vote (although we have already had a peoples vote ) so we better call it what it really is “second referendum” Do we have
A = Leave with Deal
B = Leave with No Deal
C = Stay
Do we add up A + B as they both want leave ???
If we just go Leave or Stay again and Leave again win, do we have another peoples vote until remain get the result they want?Change of leadership? there’s no one in the Tory party that stands out as a possible Leader, in fact who wants a job like this. Another case of EU bullying us “ if you get rid of May we might re negotiate “
May to change her stance?
Arguably its been deliberately done this way – organised chaos. They have done all they can NOT to plan for No Deal to avoid it going through as it is NOT what the government wanted.So there at the end will be no alternative – Mays sham deal or No Deal. The govt are relying on the 70% plus pro Remain parliament (not representative of the 52% pro LEAVE public on Brexit) to vote through her deal as opposed to the No Deal, most of them loathe.
J C is just a weasel who is staunch pro Brexit but hasn’t got the balls to come out to his own party and say so. It’s pathetic really, if he stood by his convictions he should have campaigned for Brexit but he just sat on the fence as he was too weak and even now he’s back peddling when his own party are still pro remain he won’t stand up and campaign for Brexit.
That no confidence pa-lava the other day was just a waste of everyone’s time when everybody knew it was physically impossible to win before the motion was even made, but he thought he’d do it anyway. And now he’s refusing to speak until a no deal is taken off the table, which apart from being constitutionally impossible, is a really piss poor thing to do. He should just meet and make his demands, not just cry that he’s not taking part if he can’t get his own way before negotiations can take place
A real Labour leader could turn this round massively to their parties advantage, be the party that saved Brexit, but he’s just putting his personal distaste for the conservatives above what’s right for his own party and the country.
Ticking a box on a polling sheet is dead easy – but knowing with any degree of certainty, whether Brexit or Remain will be best for the country, is incredibly difficult.
But none of us know what the future holds,the fact is, people voted and decided to leave the Eu and that decision should be upheld.Did anyone see the shadow home secretary on Question Time last night.
I will never vote tory but this as an opposition. Oh Dear !
Will the remainers please, instead of saying, “we want a people’s vote” can you please use the correct terminology which is, “we want a second referendum on Brexit” (because the first one didn’t get the result we wanted). If we did have a second referendum and remain won by a narrow margin, would we hold another? It would seem only fair as the leavers would be able to use much the same arguments as the remainers did, shirley?
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