Small margins make a huge difference. An R number of 0.9 equals 5000 hospital admissions in Wales and 1400 deaths between May 8th and 7th August 2020 (projected) BUT if the R number of rises to 1.1 it would mean 25700 hospital admissions and 7200 deaths! Now is not the time to unlock, the R number needs to be on a consistent downward trend nearer 0.5 before that should happen. More localised data on the R number would be even more helpful.
I don’t know about anyone else but as this COVID-19 is COMPLETELY NEW UNCHARTERED TERRITORY and even the world’s top scientists are playing guessing games and don’t know what will happen next, I think I’ll play it safe and stay at home for the foreseeable future and not go out for the fun of it just because normally Pissed Up Johnson says it’s okay to do so.
Common sense is the key. It will be a long time before I enter a supermarket, a garden centre or anywhere else where people gather. Better to sit on a blanket in a park whilst social distancing if I didn’t have a back garden. Difficult for children. My heart goes out to them.
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