Lucas is a Gonner
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Posts
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[quote quote=171174]Brexit/No-Brexit, like or dislike – I’d actually put money on Ian Lucas getting re-elected whenever any upcoming General Election comes up.
He can count on a combination of middle class centrist voters who would have voted Tory if they were the other side of the border but because they are Welsh cannot on principle and will vote Labour going back to the Blairite years. They also think Lucas is a safe pair of hands.
There’s also a massive number of working class voters who will vote Labour on principle as they hate the Government and the Tories more than they care about the single issue of Brexit.
Then on top of that there’s a few thousand left wingers, mostly younger people who will vote only for Corbyn.
So you take the Blairites, the traditional Welsh working class and the Corbynistas and it’s a united total – that only has to beat in a first past the post election the winner out of the split right wing vote of the Tories and the Brexit party.
This will anger and frustrate many, but there were solid chances to beat Lucas in both 2015 and 2017 – but in reality it ended up with Lucas getting his highest ever number of votes in 2017 with 17,153 on a higher than usual turnout. The BBC had the maths set-up that he was 99% certain of losing his seat from their election and polling models (flawed data of course).
I expect if another General Election occurs then due to the myriad of issues going on with the country at the moment, there will be a higher than usual turnout again.
In order for the Brexit Party to take on Labour in Wrexham – they need to suck up almost all of the Tory votes and take away a decent enough vote share from the Labour base. Plus get a high number of traditionally non-voters into the booths. There’s lots who talk the talk about wanting Brexit to happen but are too lazy to go and vote when it counts.
I make this observation as an outside observer as I’ve always had to vote in Clwyd South where Susan Elan Jones goes relatively unchallenged. But I will say well done and fair play if either a Tory or a Brexiteer does beat Lucas but you’re up against what some of you like to mention on here – Donkey’s Law.
People would vote for a Labour donkey over Tory or Tory-like parties.[/quote]
Ha ha my great grandmothers quote rears its head again, for those who have not picked this up she said “if there were two candidates, one was a Tory and one was a donkey she would vote for the donkey”
Matt you maybe right with your observations but I still think Mr. Lucas could be sailing close to the wind this time on this issue.
Some people are stuck in there ways, some Labour & conservatives will always vote that way even if they never watch the news & read a manifesto, blind loyalty or lemmings.
Again:
– there is no proof that Wrexham voted ‘overwhelmingly’ to leave – because there is no recorded count for Wrexham alone
– most Wrexham voters did not ‘revalidate’ this supposed result in the EU elections – most voted for parties other than Brexit or UKIP
– there has been no actual ‘mandate’ from the people of Wrexham for leave or remain – we don’t know what the people of Wrexham voted for.
I’m not claiming that Wrexham voted to remain, only that we don’t know how it voted. We can therefore only make ASSUMPTIONS.
Is it difficult for people to acknowledge this? Where has this idea come from – which seems to be spoken of as if it is a fact – that Wrexham voted to leave? Are people taking other people’s word for it or are they knowingly making it up? I actually checked whether these claims were true and I couldn’t find the evidence – can anyone else cite the evidence?I think Matt’s comments are spot on. I think the pro leavers are mixing up what they want to be true with what is actually true.
BTW if the two contenders are one donkey and one Tory, the donkey will always be the strongest candidate based entirely on the merits.
We’re already seeing a nationwide medicine shortage. Couple that with food shortages and thumping price hikes and other horrors – people will soon be queuing up to thank Lucas for his careful approach.
[quote quote=171242]I think Matt’s comments are spot on. I think the pro leavers are mixing up what they want to be true with what is actually true.
BTW if the two contenders are one donkey and one Tory, the donkey will always be the strongest candidate based entirely on the merits.
We’re already seeing a nationwide medicine shortage. Couple that with food shortages and thumping price hikes and other horrors – people will soon be queuing up to thank Lucas for his careful approach.[/quote]
Just out of interest Tim, please tell what medicine’s are listed in your ‘nationwide shortage’?
Lilly
‘Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion … Parliament is not a congress of ambassadors from different and hostile interests, which interests each must maintain, as an agent and advocate, against other agents and advocates; but parliament is a deliberative assembly of one nation, with one interest, that of the whole; where, not local purposes, not local prejudices ought to guide, but the general good, resulting from the general reason of the whole. You choose a member indeed; but when you have chosen him, he is not member of Bristol, but he is a member of parliament.’ Edmund Burke’s Speech to the Electors of Bristol, 3 Nov. 1774.
Ian Lucas is doing what Edmund Burke recommends and Mr Burke had lot more sense than the burks who conned the country into voting for Brexit in 2016 and have mismanaged the process over the past three years. The Brexit manifesto has failed the trades descriptions act again and again and it is time to take this faulty product back to the manufacturers and ask for either a replacement or a refund.
[quote quote=171244]
I think Matt’s comments are spot on. I think the pro leavers are mixing up what they want to be true with what is actually true.
BTW if the two contenders are one donkey and one Tory, the donkey will always be the strongest candidate based entirely on the merits.
We’re already seeing a nationwide medicine shortage. Couple that with food shortages and thumping price hikes and other horrors – people will soon be queuing up to thank Lucas for his careful approach.
Just out of interest Tim, please tell what medicine’s are listed in your ‘nationwide shortage’?
Lilly[/quote]
I think it’s pain killers and blood pressure medicine, amongst others. I’m mostly going by the notice put up in my local pharmacy, saying, from memory, ‘please don’t blame us for medicine shortages. This is a nationwide problem. Please ask your MP for help.’ Maybe you could ask at a pharmacy?
This problem will be made worse by brexit, because we get, amongst other drugs, insulin and epilepsy medicine from the EU, with time-critical supply lines.
An excellent post Ioan that sums up entirely the role of an Member of Parliament.
I actually despair at the lack of understanding or common sense of those that think (in all sincerity) that an MP is elected as their personal representative.
They are elected to serve the Country and do what is right for it and not the parochial prejudices of some backwater constituency that they happen to represent.
Are people so personally entrenched in their own opinion that they blank out the opinions of respected organisations that all state what a catastrophe it will be?.
If anyone thinks that Johnson et al will get us out of this impasse favourably, they are deluded, and I thank all the opposition parties for standing up for US, not ME.Funny that you mention Johnson. Here’s a quote from this charlatan:
“It is also true that the single market is of considerable value to many UK companies and consumers, and that leaving would cause at least some business uncertainty, while embroiling the Government for several years in a fiddly process of negotiating new arrangements, so diverting energy from the real problems of this country – low skills, low social mobility, low investment etc – that have nothing to do with Europe.”
But he‘ll forget that if it means he gets to be PM.
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