Lucas is a Gonner

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  • #171160

    Lucas has said he will support another referendum in spite of the overwhelming original Wrexham leave vote and the subsequent re-validation during the European (Brexit) party success. The people of Wrexham have told him unequivacably that we want out. 10,000 was the majority for the Brexit party.

    So, the message to Lucas is represent the two times mandate of the people of Wrexham and we have DIRECTED Lucas to vote for every possible leave vote in the House. If he fails to do so (again), it is absolutely certain that he will not be re-elected and then, being jobless, who would trust man that that demonstrates he CANNOT BE TRUSTED ? Not to follow the mandate twice given by the electorate will confirm the end of the Labour Party in Wrexham.

    #171161

    bubble
    Participant

    I looked at the referendum results back in April, before the EU parliamentary elections.

    I tried to find out how the referendum results were distributed across parliamentary constituencies. To my surprise, it’s not actually possible. According to the House of Commons Library, results were published by “counting area” (this seems to have been NUTS 1 level) and “local authorities weren’t ever required to publish the results by Parliamentary constituency or by ward”. Results that have been published by parlcon (e.g. on Wikipedia) are generally based on ESTIMATES produced by an academic (Dr Chris Hanretty). The BBC later wrote to all local authorities asking for specific counts by ward where available and the result is that of the 650 parlcons in the UK, we only KNOW the referendum results for 169 of these (26% of the parlcons). The largest difference between Dr Hanretty’s estimates and the known result for a parlcon is Hall Green in Birmingham – he estimated that 43.3% there voted leave, when in fact 33.6% actually did. Other discrepancies were much smaller – and he got the leave/remain result the wrong way around in 6 constituencies – but we still only know the discrepancies for those 169 parlcons the BBC obtained the actual results for.

    Given that there are no actual referendum results by parlcon for 74% of parlcons (and this includes Wrexham), it would be difficult for an MP to vote according to the referendum wishes of their own constituents. To be fair to MPs, another difficulty for them in knowing how best to interpret the wishes of their constituents is that since the referendum we’ve had a general election. Despite his stance on Brexit being at odds with the result of the “counting area” of “Wales”, Ian Lucas was voted in again, with 49% of the vote. This is a marked improvement for him on the 2015 general election result where he got 37% – but perhaps this is at least in part due to the fact that UKIP, which got 16% of Wrexham’s vote in 2015, managed to make a pig’s ear of their registration in the 2017 election and so did not field a candidate.

    Wikipedia gives various distributions including “major cities” – in Wales, Cardiff voted remain and Swansea voted leave. The ward level data obtained by the BBC is available to download and does not appear to include any ward level results for Wales.

    I think it’s easy to pick an approach that an MP could adopt to base their decision on. Ian Lucas could use the results from the counting area of Wales, or the fact that he was elected after the referendum despite his views being contrary to the referendum result. My own opinion is that Wrexham voted leave – but it is only my opinion based on anecdotal evidence and I could well be wrong. There is a wealth of information out there; but nothing is clear cut or directly comparable and everything is open to interpretation. How Ian Lucas interprets things may be different to you and I. I do find it astounding actually that disaggregated data on referendum results was not collated as standard.

    The EU parliamentary election results from May 2019 for Wrexham can be found here:
    https://www.wrexham.gov.uk/assets/pdfs/elections/european/2019/statement-of-local-totals.pdf
    Yes, the Brexit candidate won the seat, but the total number of votes for the Brexit and UKIP parties combined is 13,130 and for all the other parties combined it is 19,497. 244 papers were rejected. I imagine some of the Labour and Tory votes were from Brexiteers and others from remainers – but how many we don’t know.

    Regardless of whether a person is a supporter or not of Ian Lucas, or pro- or anti-Brexit, it is simply not true to claim that there was an overwhelming leave vote from Wrexham in the referendum, or that Wrexham unequivocally demonstrated its wish to leave in the EU elections. We do not know either way.

    #171163

    wxmlad
    Participant

    The man should hold his head in shame. Has he not heard of a democracy?

    #171167

    limbo
    Participant

    So Leavers ( the majority) have to win “twice”
    Whereas Remainers (the minority) have to win once.
    Doesn’t sound very democratic to me.

    #171168

    IMHO
    Participant

    There could be a vote on deal or no deal but, the stay/leave argument has already been decided by the referendum. People like Lucas are going to pay the price for their lack of support for the result of a democratically held referendum. The Brexit Party and Farage are growing stronger all the time and please don’t any remainers come after me with your tired arguments about how the referendum wasn’t democratic and how we were lied to and we didn’t know what we were voting for etc etc etc because your insults have only served to strengthen the resolve of the leavers and will continue to do so.

    #171174

    Matt
    Participant

    Brexit/No-Brexit, like or dislike – I’d actually put money on Ian Lucas getting re-elected whenever any upcoming General Election comes up.

    He can count on a combination of middle class centrist voters who would have voted Tory if they were the other side of the border but because they are Welsh cannot on principle and will vote Labour going back to the Blairite years. They also think Lucas is a safe pair of hands.

    There’s also a massive number of working class voters who will vote Labour on principle as they hate the Government and the Tories more than they care about the single issue of Brexit.

    Then on top of that there’s a few thousand left wingers, mostly younger people who will vote only for Corbyn.

    So you take the Blairites, the traditional Welsh working class and the Corbynistas and it’s a united total – that only has to beat in a first past the post election the winner out of the split right wing vote of the Tories and the Brexit party.

    This will anger and frustrate many, but there were solid chances to beat Lucas in both 2015 and 2017 – but in reality it ended up with Lucas getting his highest ever number of votes in 2017 with 17,153 on a higher than usual turnout. The BBC had the maths set-up that he was 99% certain of losing his seat from their election and polling models (flawed data of course).

    I expect if another General Election occurs then due to the myriad of issues going on with the country at the moment, there will be a higher than usual turnout again.

    In order for the Brexit Party to take on Labour in Wrexham – they need to suck up almost all of the Tory votes and take away a decent enough vote share from the Labour base. Plus get a high number of traditionally non-voters into the booths. There’s lots who talk the talk about wanting Brexit to happen but are too lazy to go and vote when it counts.

    I make this observation as an outside observer as I’ve always had to vote in Clwyd South where Susan Elan Jones goes relatively unchallenged. But I will say well done and fair play if either a Tory or a Brexiteer does beat Lucas but you’re up against what some of you like to mention on here – Donkey’s Law.

    People would vote for a Labour donkey over Tory or Tory-like parties.

    #171175

    janeywxm
    Participant

    Really angry at this! I voted leave and I don’t even care if we leave with no deal or not. I just want us out and for us to move one!

    Can you imagine the remoaners if they had won the referendum and those wanting out had been demanding a second vote?

    Sorry but the people spoke and out we should go!

    Janey

    #171176

    Llayby lilly
    Participant

    Lucas the LIAR is TOAST……!

    Lilly

    #171180

    WreX-iT
    Participant

    Lucas is a traitor to the people he is supposed to represent.

    Matt your donkey comment reminds me of the Monty Python election special ……….

    Cleese: No I’m sorry, there isn’t time, we have to pick up a few results you may have missed. A little pink pussy-cat has taken Barrow-in-Furness — that’s a gain from the Liberals there. Rastus Odinga Odinga has taken Wolverhampton Southwest, that’s Enoch Powell’s old constituency — an important gain there for ****** Power. Arthur Negus has held Bristol — that’s not a result, that’s just a piece of gossip. Sir Alec Douglas Hume has taken Oldham for the Stone Dead party. A small piece of putty about that big, a cheese mechanic from Dunbar and two frogs — one called Kipper the other not — have all gone ‘Ni ni ni ni ni ni!’ in Blackpool Central. And so it’s beginning to look like a Silly landslide, and with the prospect of five more years’ Silly government facing us we… Oh I don’t want to do this any more, I’m bored!

    Palin: He’s right you know, it is a bloody waste of time.

    Chapman: Absolute waste of time.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  WreX-iT.
    #171183

    newwales
    Participant

    MPs are voted in by the public to represent us, so should vote the way the people vote, I voted to remain, but not a Remoner & the MP should vote the way the local voters voted.

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